Ceiling
30%This is the real basketball ceiling plus the hobby ceiling that basketball case can support. For incoming rookies, it is still projection, so the final score discounts it before ranking.
9-10 means a credible franchise-face or playoff-driving-star path. 7-8 means very strong prospect, but the hobby ceiling is less certain. 5-6 means good player possibility without obvious card-market takeover equity.
Demand
20%Demand measures whether serious collectors are likely to care deeply over time, not just whether scouts like the player right now.
8-10 means broad future demand looks believable. 6-7 means the buyer base is plausible but not yet obvious. 5 and below means the long-term collector hook still feels narrow or fragile.
Price
15%Price asks whether advanced collectors are likely to be paying for real upside or just buying draft-night and Summer League imagination.
8-10 means the likely opening market still leaves room to win. 6-7 means the entry could work with patience. 5 and below means the market is likely to tax the name too hard too early.
Ecosystem
15%This combines evidence from existing Bowman, Bowman U, McDonald's All-American, and Topps NOW lanes with the projected quality of the first full NBA-uniform flagship market.
8-10 means the style historically creates strong flagship-card markets. 6-7 means there is some hobby path, but not an ideal one. 5 and below means the archetype usually caps the card ceiling.
Narrative
10%Narrative is the extra lift that makes a market feel bigger than the scouting report alone. After the draft, this blends projected collector demand with the first public NBA-stage reaction.
8-10 means the player already carries real headline gravity. 6-7 means there is a usable story, but it is not fully magnetic. 5 and below means the market may always struggle to care at scale.
Supply
5%Supply is a discipline score. Existing prospect checklists, numbered structures, print-on-demand volume, and the risk of a much larger NBA-rookie release cycle all inform the downside.
8-10 means the floor is relatively sturdy. 6-7 means ordinary risk. 5 and below means there is a real chance the rookie market never recovers from early overpricing.
Trajectory
5%Trajectory blends prospect certainty with landing-spot resilience. Higher scores mean the card thesis should survive a wider range of early NBA contexts.
8-10 means the runway is clean and the role is hard to shake. 6-7 means the next phase looks solid, though not frictionless. 5 and below means the environment or translation picture creates real hesitation.
